Sidetracked

It's funny what curveballs life will throw at you (or insert other clichéd comment about life). As a diehard Collingwood supporter, I was very nervous about Saturday past, only a win would ease my discomfort. From there, I had a win-win situation in front of me: if we won, I could bask in the glory whilst I previewed the UCI World Road Cycling Championships with a relaxed and happy outlook; if we lost, I could use the World Champs to distract myself from the pain.


As it happened, neither occurred (typical) so now I have to preview the races with no real information and without the chance of being able to get down to Geelong to watch a single race. Nevertheless, here is my best effort.



Road Race (262.7km)
The Course: Beginning in Federation Square, the 90-odd km jaunt down to Geelong will be largely ceremonial, being reasonably flat, straight and open. I'd expect that a break may form whilst on the freeway but will be reeled back in by the time they hit the circuit in Geelong. This is where the action will really begin to hot up. The 16km course with two short but very steep climbs will test the legs of the whole peloton. As has been increasingly suggested, this isn't a course for the sprinters. Expect a tough, one-day classics rider to take the spoils.

The Riders: Initially, most pundits were backing a sprinter to win it, immediately dismissing that the course was too flat and disinteresting for classics riders to do any damage. Now, though, myriad different riders could win it, here's a few to watch:
     -Obviously, Cadel Evans will feature prominently as he tries to defend the title he won in Switzerland last year. It's not going to be easy for him, though; his form isn't great, he hasn't raced much recently and the course doesn't suit him. As he showed in the Tour de France, though, he's all heart and will give it a big run. Hard to see him going back-to-back though.
     -Fabian Cancellara: Could do a rare double by winning the time trial and the road race in the same year. He has proved himself a magnificent classics rider over the past couple of years although doubt still lingers over whether he can climb with the big (or should I say small) boys.
     -Filippo Pozzato: Has great form and mindset leading in, the self-titled 'playboy' has put himself on notice: 'no sex before the world champs'. Will it pay off? Hmmm...
     -Phillipe Gilbert: Had a super Vuelta with stage wins and holding the leader's Red Jersey. Has the credentials to be a superstar and a win would certainly confirm that.
     -Mark Cavendish: If it comes down to a bunch sprint, the only two guys who can beat him are Petacchi and Hushovd. For Hushovd to win, the finish would have to be steeper and longer. For Petacchi to win, Cavendish would have to crash.
     -Simon Gerrans: Who could forget his epic win on Stage 15 of the 2008 Tour. Profile suits him, country suits him, fans and team will be behind him. A big chance.
     -Stuart O'Grady: Would cap off an illustrious career if he could capture a win on home soil. Hasn't had a great 2010 but the former winner of Paris-Roubaix (2007), multiple Tour stages and multiple Tour Down Under's, 'Stuey' is as tough as they come. One only has to look at the way he sat on the front of the peloton for hour after hour for Andy Schleck at this year's Tour to know he's a great rider. He's due for a big result.


Verdict: Whilst Fabian Cancellara doing the double is an enticing prospect, he hasn't had the greatest of lead-ups (abandoned the Vuelta a Espana and went home without notifying the team). Pozzato won the pre-World Champs warm-up race in Ballarat, beating Cancellara (4th, +2sec) and Simon Gerrans (15th, +20sec), signalling his intentions. But I'm going sentimental here and going to tip Stuey. His palmarès is incredible, his tenacity unquenchable and the fact that at 37 and on home soil, everything is ripe for one last glorious race for O'Grady.


Side note: I must commend Cadel on the way he's carried the Rainbow jersey this year. He won La Fleche Wallonne, 5th overall in the Giro whilst also winning the Points Classification, Stage 7 and held the Pink jersey for 2 days, 4th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and held the Yellow jersey in the Tour despite having a broken elbow. That's quite a year for a guy not known for his attacking.


Time Trial (45.8km)
The course: Beginning and ending in the Geelong town centre, this looks to be an extremely tough time trial.The first 4.5km are flat or downhill, giving riders a chance to build a rhythm. This will be rudely interrupted once riders turn right onto Mt Pleasant Rd and begin a series of short, sharp climbs, which punctuate the next 5km. The second half of the course will be better for the more natural time triallist, looking to establish a natural rhythm. The men will complete two laps of the 22.9km course.


The Man: Fabian Cancellara, now affectionately known as Spartacus, utterly destroyed the field last year, beating Tony Martin by 2 and a half minutes. So great was his victory that he sat up out of the saddle for the final 400m and waved to the crowd. Won both time trials in the Tour this year and is looking as unstoppable as ever.


The Challengers:
     -Tony Martin: The heir-apparent to Cancellara's TT crown, the young German has beaten the Swiss ace this year at the Tour de Suisse.
     -Bert Grabsch: World Time Trial champ in 2008, Grabsch finished third in the final TT of the Tour. His best days are past him but is still capable of putting together a tidy time trial and perhaps sneak into the medals.
     -Bradley Wiggins*: 'Wiggo' has had a bit of a down 2010 after a magnificent 2009. Didn't feature whatsoever in the Tour, although did win the first TT stage of the Giro and wore the Pink jersey for a day. Virtually walks in the British National Time Trial Championships each year.


The Aussies:
     -Michael Rogers: Triple World Time Trial Champion, he swapped the discipline in favour of winning grand tours. Got extremely close in 2007,when he was leader on the road during Stage 8 and looking very strong before crashing and breaking his collarbone on the descent of the Cormet de Roseland. Won the Tour of California, Ruta del Sol and was third in the Tour de Romandie, so has the form to put in a good performance.
     -Richie Porte: Australia's best chance at a Grand Tour win in the next 10 years, the 25 year old took a shock Pink jersey in the Giro d'Italia for 3 stages before eventually finishing 7th and winning the young riders competition. Apparently, he's a really strong TT rider.


Verdict: No-one can stop Spartacus. In blustery conditions on the penultimate stage individual time trial of the hardest race on earth, he averaged 51km/h. Enough said. Cancellara will win, not by as much as last year, but still fairly comfortably.


*I've just been informed that Wiggins isn't coming to the Worlds. Sorry about the extra info!